Thursday, 11 June 2009

What's your call?

I'm half way through a catch up post regarding the last few dream team events but a very interesting hand cam up the other night. I was UTG with 88 and limped for 200. Everyone folded to the SB who also completed the blind and then the big blind raised to 600. I called the 400 and SB folded but the big blind didn't realise I had called and flipped his J3 over. So the standard ruling that he could only call any bets I made happened and the dealer dealt the flop of 246.

So the big blind has a gutshot plus 3 overcards. So what is the optimum bet here that gives a +ev?

I've done what I believe are the maths but I would be interested to see what others think (doing the maths or just what they would do.

I will post again my views tomorrow.


  1. I'd have to bet about 575 here...knowing it wont cost me anymore if he hits, and hes prob dumb enough to call that.... really dont wanna give him the full value to hit!!

  2. Think we would have to know your stack here because that should be the main influence on any bet you make here. I mean how badly do you need the money out there? If your both sitting on big stacks then give him a decent price to call, so his 7-1 give him 5-1 and his making a mistake by calling and you make money.

    But if your both sitting on 2K stack then you need that money out there more so give him a worse price. It’s the old risk V’s reward issue as he can have no implied odd’s the maths should be pretty straight forward but need stack sizes to make final decision.

  3. Effective stacks 6000 chips.
    I'm looking for a +ev bet.
    Obv checking is -ev