Call or fold against chip leader bullying the bubble?

Right, bubble of an 18 man $30 STT.

Prizes are
1st $270
2nd $162
3rd $108

Stack sizes and sharkscope stats (which I didn't have at the time) are:

Player - Chips - Played - Av Profit - Ave Stake - ROI - Profit - Ability /100
Me (BB) - 5860 - 608 - 4 - 36 - 16% - $2530 - 79
seat 2 (UTG) - 16470 - 57 - 3 - 10 - 59% - $189 - 71
seat 3 (button)- 860 - 451 - 0 - 13 - 1% - -$173 - 54
seat 4 (SB) - 3810 - 13 - -13 - 30 - -40% - -$171 - 58


Chip leader has been going all in every hand since we got to the bubble including reraising seat 4.

Blinds are 300/600 and I'm in the big blind with AcQc. Chip leader is all in for 16470.

Fold or call?

I actually folded in this spot

Next hand seat 3 is all in for 860 and the chip leader in the big blind folds for an extra 260 chips - he's obviously trying to prolong the bubble

Following hand chip leader is all in after it is folded to him

Blinds up to 400/800

Following hand chip leader is all in with K3o which is called by seat 3 for 560 on top of his small blind of 400 with KQ and he doubles up to 2720 leaving the situation as


Me (BB) 4960
seat 2 (UTG) 16610
seat 3 (button) 2720
seat 4 (SB) 2710

Chip leader goes in again UTG with his obvious any two looking to bully the bubble.

What do you need to call?

I called with Ks6h and got some criticism, was I wrong?

New Job

Well, after weeks of applications (fortunately online via cv which doesn't take too much time), numerous phone calls and 7 interviews I managed to get a job today.

It's only temporary for 2 - 3 months covering for a long term sick person but there is the potential for it becoming permanent and, whilst it is not quite as much as I was looking for, it is very local and I can start Monday which means I have no gap in employment (although I was sort of looking forward to a week or two off given the current weather - I quite fancied the idea of playing poker in the garden)

Sounds like it might be interesting anyway.

Just received an email from Delta airlines today telling me about a change to our itinerary for when we go to Florida in August.

After 10 minutes of looking I couldn't work out what had changed so I dug out the original itinerary and checked all the dates of departure, take off times etc, nothing has changed! Until I checked the landing times and yes, there it is! Our flight from New York to Orlando will be landing 2 minutes earlier!

2 minutes... They must have recruited a faster pilot!

Would you be bothered to tell anyone?

It looks like my limit has been upped on bad beat too since I logged on today and there is a bit more in my account. So I played a quick couple of STT's and picked up a nice quick couple of hundred $$ which is not bad for the P&L despite what I said the other day lol.

Anyway, bed for me now.

Grinding away

After a spell of not playing very much at all I have managed to fit in a few sessions. Still not a huge volume but that could very well change in the next few weeks.

I now have a finish date of July 11th after which I will be (temporarily I hope) between jobs.

I've got an interview tomorrow for a short term job filling in for someone who is off on long term sick doing a job that is very similar to my current role so that is hopeful. Other than that all of my interviews have been unsuccessful so far so I could end up with a few weeks "holiday" until I get myself sorted.

If I am off work for a few weeks, at least I'll have the time to put in a few more hours to try and see what I can do on the STT front.

Oh for a run like I was having last Autumn...

Still got the ant problem.

It's not huge but whenever I put the ant powder down where they have been depositing their crap, they just move further down the wall or, since I put it down along the whole length of the wall, they then moved to the other side of the room. They must be under the floorboards somewhere.

I bought some ant bait that they are supposed to take back to their nest and then it allegedly causes them to hallucinate and attack each other before dying but there doesn't seem to be much difference.

I did notice quite a few out in the back garden last night, I don't know whether these ants are the foragers and maybe the ants inside are the workers.

So I have bought a different version of the bait and put it outside where the other ants are and hopefully they can take it home to the queen!

We bought the new Grandslam Tennis for the Wii on Sunday. It uses a new motion controller for more accurate interpretations of your movements. So far I've played about 8 games online and I have lost 7 out of 8, probably against 10 year olds!

There is a ranking system and you start with 500 points. I have something like 250 at the moment and I am being paired with people who have a ranking of 1000+ points!

I suppose practice will help.

At least I can beat Andrew and Julie!

Emma is at the stage where she isn't playing games like this at the moment, I don't think it is cool enough for her!

No doubt Andrew will be beating me in a couple of weeks!

Julie's got no chance lol - now there's a challenge for her!

After a good couple of weeks on the tables, I started to get a few of the old KK v AA or QQ v 77 on T72 boards etc. I'm getting used to these runs and checking my P&L it is becoming a habit where I will get a good run where the graph spikes and then it runs level for a week or two before another step jump so I am going to be wary of a probable tailing off over the next couple of weeks.

Also thinking that it is time to start playing a few more satellites for some bigger events since i haven't played any since I started with badbeat.

Anyway, that's it for now.

Michael Jackson RIP

Michael Jackson has died in LA, aged 50.

Michael suffered a cardiac arrest at 7.30 GMT Thursday June 25th at his Holmby Hills home.

Paramedics were unable to revive him.

When they arrived Jackson had no pulse and they never got a pulse back.

A cardiologist at UCLA reports Jackson died of cardiac arrest.

Michael was due to perform a series of concerts in London starting July 13th.

Celebrity website TMZ reports:

"If the reports are accurate, this development will almost certainly have an impact on the singer's 50 scheduled concerts in London, which are scheduled to begin on July 13."

Bit of an understatement there.

He was dogged with problems, particularly relating to allegations of child abuse, but one thing people will not be able to dispute is his undoubted genius as a singer and dancer.

RIP

Jackpot Consolation

Well I played the jackpot game for my shot at the $300 consolation prize and the tournament went pretty well with me managing to avoid anyone racing against me. When I was faced with a couple of big reraises post flop I had either an over pair or better and luckily he didn't have any big draws.

So I finished up winning it and now I am due $300 from the guys at Mansion.

I played 5 a side tonight but we only had 8 so with 4 a side the gym is huge and it's hard work. Enjoyed it though.

Andrew has another presentation day tomorrow this time for the whole Mags club which consists of 20 teams.

I've had about 6 interviews over the ast month or so but still not got meyself sorted. I think I've got a couple more weeks until I am finished with Enterprise. I've got one more interview lined up on Tuesday for the job that I want most. Working for the HSE pretty close to home. A few more in the pipeline too but hopefully I can get to second interview on Tuesday.

Anyway, bed for me now.

Jackpot hunting

Still really busy with applications and I've still got a presentation to prepare for my next interview but I hope to finish the dream team update soon! - promises, promises....

I have managed to play a couple of STT's and I've been playing a few Jackpot STT's where anyone who wins 6 in a row wins $45000 in the $20 version (it's $110,000 in the $50 version!)

They also have a consolation bonus of $300 if you come 1st or 2nd in 6 in a row (only 6 players in each)

Well I'm on the bubble, having finished top 2 for 5 in a row so I'm going to pick my moment to play the last one and make sure there are no interruptions. I might even sharkscope a couple of players before I enter the tournament to try to be a bit selective.

Job front I have 2 interviews lined up. So far I've had 6 and all of the feedback has been really good but that's no good if I still haven't got a job by the time my temporary work finishes in a few weeks time.

I'm pretty hopeful for the one on Wednesday as the IT director is someone who used to work with and has given me a very good reference so much that they have slotted me into the process as they were already well down the second interview stage before I was mentioned.

I'm still not doing anything live, after Friday when I was knocked out by AJ v TT all in pre flop when a 2 on the river gave him a straight but that's the way it goes.

It's good to see a few Brits winning some bracelets over the water (Vegas not Birkenhead!)

Let's hope it continues.

I spent a good half hour yesterday reading up all the results from the WSOP on Blonde only to realise when I got to the Main event that I was reading 2007 results!

Anyway, off to bed, got coaching course tomorrow.

Pot odds answer

Right, you remember the scenario, you have 88 UTG and limped for 200, BB raised to 600 and you called but he turned his J3 over.

He is allowed to call but cannot bet.

The flop comes 246 so he has a gutshot and an over card, what is the best bet?

Here's my view on the matter and my calculations, I am happy for anyone to shoot me down if I have made a mistake in my calculations.

There are 45 cards left in the deck and 7 of them will improve his hand, 38 are safe.

So the chances of him going ahead on the turn are calculated as follows:

1-(38/45)=16%

So I currently have 1600 chips in the pot which will be mine if I go all in assuming he folds and my equity is 1600 chips.

If I bet nothing then I will win the 1600 chips 84% of the time giving me 1600*84%=1351 equity

Clearly I need to bet somewhere in between, so what is the break even number.

Taking the turn bet in isolation a little goal seek in excel tells me that if I bet 162 chips and he calls then I will have built the pot to 1924 which I will win 84% of the time. My equity is therefore

16% * -162 = -25

+

84% * 1924 = 1625

= 1600

and so my equity remains at 1600 meaning that my bet should be as much as possible over 162 chips that I think he will call.

Obviously there is a small factor relating to the turn bet as well and also the possibility that he could improve on the turn but I improve on the river but in essence I think this is somewhere near where I should have bet rather than the 500 I actually bet.

I was quite surprised when I worked out how small the bet should be and would love to hear if anyone thinks I have missed anything.

5-a-side in a minute so I'll have to go soon.