Variance

Been having a couple of days off since a terrible run on Thursday and Friday that saw my bankroll shrink by 50%.

I've been playing the $100 and $200 tournaments almost exclusively and I played something like 35 tournaments on Thursday with a pitiful return of less than 30% (ie losing $70 for every $100 entry. Not had anywhere near as bad a run as that and I have to admit that it was very demoralising.

I have now played over 700 tournaments in this format and overall my return is 104% (ie 4% profit) but it is currently standing at 98% for $200 and 5% for $100 tournaments so I've decided to do 2 things about it.

1. Have a lay off for a few days - I last played on Friday and I'm not playing again until tomorrow night.

2. Stay away from the $200 tournaments.

In terms of the $200 tournaments, because of the great loyalty deal I have with Bigslick (contact me if you are interested in a similar deal) I am still making a profit when I add the rakeback into my calculations but it will be more profitable for me to play the $100 tournaments in terms of hourly rate.

Looking at the stats of some of the regulars I am encountering it seems that some of these guys may be in a similar situation as a few of them have negative profit on Sharkscope but are there many hours a day which suggests that they are playing for a living and so cannot be losing overall.

So I decided to play the Semi freezeout in Circus on Sunday. That was interesting.
To cut a short story even shorter I lost my first 4000 chips with AA after raising to 300, being reraised to 800, I reraised to 2300 and he put me all in with a monster 77. The A 6 10 on the flop made it even more difficult for him to win, all I needed was to avoid running 7s or 9 then 8.........

So after rebuying and losing 1000 on a couple of raises that were out flopped I decided to check raise a 500 bet that had already been called to 2400 all in when in the big blind on a limped flop of Ad 9h 4d flop with Kd6d. Anyway A5 couldn't fold and my flush draw missed to send me home.
So, spending a couple of days catching up on a few poker million shows and I'll be back refreshed tomorrow night!