Saturday, 31 January 2009

Home alone, badbeat, job applications and the odds are wrong

Well I'm sitting here at home when I should be put playing football.
I went out today taking Andrew (my 9 year old) to football and I was only standing on the touchline for an hour and a half but even that caused me enough back pain to know there was no chance of playing today.

It's funny how we try to convince ourselves that "it won't be too bad once I'm running" but in reality I knew there was not much chance of being able to play today.

Anyway, beat the kids at Mariocart when we got home (which is a bit unusual, especially Emma - my 13 year old.)

Anyway, applied for a few interesting jobs too today so it's been quite productive.
The Internet makes things so much easier to apply for jobs. I remember when I was applying for teaching jobs back in 1993/4 and it used to take hours filling out forms etc, now a couple of clicks here and there and I've applied for 6 jobs in 30 minutes!

I went out to play live last night for the first time in a couple of weeks since I couldn't play 5-a-side. Got a few chips before the break when my KK held up against 5 players. Then proceeded to bluff off half my stack when my big blind was min raised to 800 and I held A7. Decided the player was weak when he continuation bet the K high flop and so called the flop bet with nothing with the intention of taking it away with a check raise on the turn on a bet on the river. He checked behind on the turn and when the K came on the river I bet 3/4 of the pot and he made a good call with trip kings.

I went out not long after with AJ all in for 3100 when the blinds were 400/800.

One point I will make is the time it was taking our dealer to deal each hand. We were playing about 2 minutes for each hand. When the blinds are 20 minutes, that means we are getting one round at each blind level which doesn't half make it into a crap shoot!

There really was some poor play on show though, including one guy calling the blind of 100 very first hand (with a starting stack of 1000.) He then calls the raise to 500 with 4 others in the pot and finally folds when it is reraised to 1000 when all other 4 had called! Apparently he had 8d9d!

I must stop this fancy play syndrome when I do get some chips! I find it relatively easy to get through the rebuy period in these things without many rebuys but haven't cashed in so long and need to get my finger out.

On the Badbeat front, I had my "interview" session with my prospective mentor last night when played 2 double up STT's and managed to win both.

From what he said it looks like I will be accepted as a trainee trader early next week and I can see how it goes from there.

On more thing, I notice that you can get 10.5-1 on Liverpool to win the Premier League at the moment. I think the bookies make too much of small changes in the leadership of the league and that is way too high. I'm not saying that Liverpool will win the league but I am certain those odds will come back in over the next few weeks. Manchester United have been on a great winning streak without conceding a goal and that has to end soon and they can easily drop points to Everton, especially if Cahill is fit.

Liverpool, on the other hand have been going through their bad patch and I can see a response to the bad result on Wednesday coming against Chelsea tomorrow. No doubt if they do win and United drop points there will be another wild change in the odds.

Friday, 30 January 2009

Back in trouble...

I've been off work this week with a swollen disk in by lower back. It's something that happened to me about a year ago although not quite as bad this time but enough to keep me pretty much on my back all week.

On the poker front things are still not going as well as they were in September and October.

For the first 500 of these tournaments I ket telling myself that it was all just a hit streak and that variance would eventually reduce my returns and I didn't get excited about anything. Obviously I was very very hopeful that I had found a niche where I seemed to be making a lot of money but I deliberately witheld my optimism.

After 500 tournaments I felt that variance should surely have evened itself out and I was up to $4000 at which poin I bought the television so that I had something to show for it and that would never be lost.

That was about the time when I moved to Bigslick in order to increase the loyalty payments I was getting compared to Paddypower. (A significant increase I might add)

Unfortunately that was also the time that I had a very bad session losing tournament after tournament with bad beat after bad beat. It was an incredibly horrible session where I lost a significant number of tournaments dipping my P&L significantly ($2000) but again, that was just variance.

However, despite winning all that money back over the following 2 weeks as you can see from my post on November 11th

Since then things have not gotten any better.

This is my double up bankroll from my spreadsheet.

So now I'm uploading all my tournament files into Pokertracker with the aim of trying to find out if I am doing something differently.

I really can't understand the reason.

I'm pretty certain 500 tournaments is a statistically large enough sample for it not to be variance so something must have changed. - Either the way other players are playing against me, or more likely, the way I am playing against others.

That is one of the reasons I have applied to badbeat. Partly because my bankroll cannot stand the entry fees of the tournaments I want to play and partly because of the software and montor support that is available.

In terms of live poker, I would normally be playing Leos tonight because I can't play football but as it is a £100 rebuy my bankroll won't even stretch that far due to the lack of wins this year so I'll have to stay in or look at the birkenhead £10 rebuy!

I really am due for a cash soon!!!!!!!

On the job front, I had an interview for a very good job last week that would be (in effect) a promotion. If all goes well and I get it, there is a fair chance I'll still be able to take the redundancy I will inevitably get too, which would be a welcome boost.

Anyway, better go lie down again and rest the old back.

Nearly 40 and my body is starting to give up!!!

Wednesday, 21 January 2009

Cooler after cooler

Just got back from the Circus Liverpool where 50 runners played the £30 semi freezeout.

However I must report on these two cooler hands that occurred one after the other to bust a couple of players.

***Warning*** When you read this you will not believe how unlucky the players involved were!

Blinds were 50/100 and most people had 4000 chips.

First hand involved 4 people seeing the flop after no raise pre flop.

The flop came down J54 with 2 spades

Both blinds checked and the UTG bet 400 which was raised by the button to 1400, both blinds folded and the UTG reraised to 3000, button went all in for about 3800 which was called by UTG.

The hands they held....J8 and J9!!!!

On to the next "cooler" where UTG bet 400 UTG+1 raised to 800 small blind reraised all in to 4000 which was called by the big blind and both others in the pot.

The monsters this time....

First raiser AKs
reraiser KK
small blind all in AQo
big blind call all in after raise, reraise and rereraise...AQo!

Please, if somebody needs your thoughts, spare one for those poor souls involved in these inevitable all in hands!!!!

I went out in 30th when my 3600 all in raise wasn't good enough against a limped
(300/600 blinds) A6 who put me on a small pair.

I never seem to win these "races"

Oh well.

Still haven't heard from Bad beat since they checked my accounts....
No doubt they have to go through some sort of decision making process.

On the job front after having passed my psychometric tests I have an interview on Friday for a very good job.

Still don't know where we are at regarding our current contract but I'll have to see what happens if I get offered this job.

Friday, 16 January 2009

Moving on... maybe

Well, not great turn up on the double up front so I've not been playing as many because the bankroll is way too low.

Had a near miss at the Circus when I finihed 15th last Sunday.

I was going quite well after someone doubled me upwith 3 tables left.

I ended up going out in a couple of quick hands.

First I was reraised by the small blind after my button raise with A5.

Then I got KQ UTG (7 handed) and so with the blinds at 2000/4000 and 18000 chips in front of me I moved all in and was snap called. He had QQ and no king sent me home.

However, I've come to a decision and I've decided to apply to bad beat. I've filled out the application form and they are going to check my account tomorrow then I'll see where I am.

There are a couple of reasons. Firstly bankroll and secondly I think there are a few areas of my ganme that need improving and I would welcome the input from a mentor.

So hopefully I will be accepted and then take it from there.

On the work front there is still no news although we are court with our client tomorrow, so we may have some news early next week.

I have had a few calls from some agencies and had to take a couple of aptitude tests and got the thumbs up today so will be getting an interview next week.

I also got tickets to the snooker final at Wembley on Sunday as a Christmas present so I'm looking forward to that.

Anyway, that's all for now.