Friday, 30 January 2009

Back in trouble...

I've been off work this week with a swollen disk in by lower back. It's something that happened to me about a year ago although not quite as bad this time but enough to keep me pretty much on my back all week.

On the poker front things are still not going as well as they were in September and October.

For the first 500 of these tournaments I ket telling myself that it was all just a hit streak and that variance would eventually reduce my returns and I didn't get excited about anything. Obviously I was very very hopeful that I had found a niche where I seemed to be making a lot of money but I deliberately witheld my optimism.

After 500 tournaments I felt that variance should surely have evened itself out and I was up to $4000 at which poin I bought the television so that I had something to show for it and that would never be lost.

That was about the time when I moved to Bigslick in order to increase the loyalty payments I was getting compared to Paddypower. (A significant increase I might add)

Unfortunately that was also the time that I had a very bad session losing tournament after tournament with bad beat after bad beat. It was an incredibly horrible session where I lost a significant number of tournaments dipping my P&L significantly ($2000) but again, that was just variance.

However, despite winning all that money back over the following 2 weeks as you can see from my post on November 11th

Since then things have not gotten any better.

This is my double up bankroll from my spreadsheet.

So now I'm uploading all my tournament files into Pokertracker with the aim of trying to find out if I am doing something differently.

I really can't understand the reason.

I'm pretty certain 500 tournaments is a statistically large enough sample for it not to be variance so something must have changed. - Either the way other players are playing against me, or more likely, the way I am playing against others.

That is one of the reasons I have applied to badbeat. Partly because my bankroll cannot stand the entry fees of the tournaments I want to play and partly because of the software and montor support that is available.

In terms of live poker, I would normally be playing Leos tonight because I can't play football but as it is a £100 rebuy my bankroll won't even stretch that far due to the lack of wins this year so I'll have to stay in or look at the birkenhead £10 rebuy!

I really am due for a cash soon!!!!!!!

On the job front, I had an interview for a very good job last week that would be (in effect) a promotion. If all goes well and I get it, there is a fair chance I'll still be able to take the redundancy I will inevitably get too, which would be a welcome boost.

Anyway, better go lie down again and rest the old back.

Nearly 40 and my body is starting to give up!!!


  1. Michael

    I too have hit a big dip in the double up front on one particular site. Again I seem not to have changed anything with my play, it just seems if I am 60/40 or 70/30 favourite I can't win the hand all in. This has a negative effect on playing style and I think it does change your game marginally enough to make a difference. I have hence lost confidence in the site, cleared my final bonus and am now playing elsewhere with results returning back to the 10% profit mark from the 5% I had been getting.

    I am not saying there is anything going on with the site, I am saying that the mental result is affecting my play, so I chose to play elsewhere where I don't have any negative mental baggage ... YET!

    Hope this helps.



  2. I totally agree that even small changes the way you play can make a difference. Thanks for the comment.