Thursday, 2 October 2008

So far so good...

I thought I might have hit a reality check last night after I had played another 10 double ups, after I only won 5 of them for a small loss whilst watching Liverpool.

Although I did make a huge mistake in a $100 6 seater when there was 4 left with the blinds at 100/200. Stacks were roughly CL 4000 on the button, me on 2300 in the SB, BB with 1800 and the small stack on 800 I made up the small blind for 100 with A3 after CL limped.

Flop came down A 2 3 rainbow and I checked, SB bet 200 and CL called, I raised the pot to 1700.

Turn was a 7 or some other brick, CL checked and I put my last 200 in which he called with AA.

I really should not have been involved in the pot with the chip leader in this sort of tournament when the small stack only had 4 bb left.

If I had cashed in that tournament I would have still been on track for 16% return.

I supposed that's what happens when you are watching football and playing 4 tables, poor concentration and bad decisions.

I played another 17 or so games later and up until the last 4 I had won exactly half of them for a small loss until the final 4 all came good and I ended up $260 ish up for the night.

I'm closely monitoring these games to work out what sort of return I am getting and I've now played 70 (including 1 PLO version that I played by mistake - but still cashed)

So far I have won 45 and lost 25 for a total buy in of $4532.5 and winnings of $5270 for a profit of $737.5 which equates to a ROI of 16%.

What i haven't got time to do is to record how long each one is taking but they seem to be averaging 30-40 mins so I am putting 40 mins for each one. On that basis I am making £10 per table per hour at the moment which would be lovely to maintain long term.

What I don't know is how many I need to play before I can be statistically sure of my return.

I know if this was a normal tournament I would need a much larger sample size but because these are either win or lose the sample size doesn't need to be as big.

Anyway, I'm going to keep recording my results on here so I can chart my progess.

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