I've had a bit of a reality check over the last couple of days.
As you can see from the table below I was up to $2958 last week but a couple of bad days has seen that drop drastically.
Date ROI Bankroll
16/09/2008 182% 27
22/09/2008 182% 72
25/09/2008 182% 180
26/09/2008 6% 19.5
28/09/2008 144% 251.5
29/09/2008 117% 382.5
30/09/2008 133% 579.5
01/10/2008 107% 737.5
02/10/2008 143% 1280.5
04/10/2008 86% 1056.5
06/10/2008 127% 1329.5
08/10/2008 108% 1454.5
09/10/2008 107% 1702.5
10/10/2008 122% 1738.5
13/10/2008 101% 1747.5
15/10/2008 97% 1578.5
16/10/2008 113% 2099.5
17/10/2008 144% 2958.5
18/10/2008 76% 2248.5
19/10/2008 85% 1654.5
20/10/2008 106% 1866.5
The reason for this, I think is that with my new found confidence I've been playing $100 and $200 tourneys and my ROI has dropped into the 5% range over all tournaments as you can see below.
6 Seat 10 seat All tables No of tournaments
$30 182% 182% 182% 6
$50 117% 112% 115% 68
$100 109% 112% 110% 120
$200 97% 109% 99% 92
Total 102% 112% 105% 286
I don't know whether it is a blip that was caused by me losing quite a few $200 tournaments in a row yesterday when either people were getting lucky at the right time or I was getting KK beaten by A rag or I was getting AK when someone else had AA at the bubble end of the tournaments.
Anyway, I decided to listen to the numbers yesterday and the last 11 tournaments I played were all $100 affairs and I won 8 so I'm going to stick to the $100 tournaments until my bankroll is over $4000 (assuming it gets there!)
I'm not maybe some of the regulars at the $200 level have sussed out what I'm up to or not but we'll see hopefully.
The good news is I've now reached General status on Paddy Power which gives me $500 bonus at the end of the month and if I can keep that up each month by the middle of the month I might even look at trying to get 2 ipoker skins up to the same level so that I can get two of these bonuses a month rather than having to cash in the points to get the extra few $100 worth of loyalty bonuses.
Anyway, I'm going to try to keep recording my progress here so that I can see in future months where I have been going.
Going to Leos tonight for a change since I'm off for the rest of the week whilst the kids are off.
I haven't been for a while and judging by Cashbiatch's post about a cash game, it hasn't changed much.
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5 months ago
Good analaysis mate, lm sure it will reach the 4k very soon.
ReplyDeleteI presume you are still tallying up on the double up tourneys.
ReplyDeleteThis may well just be variance. From my records the worst losing run because of the suck outs you describe was of 5 in a row. However my highest win rate has been 7 in a row, this is now what I take as my variance.
Although I am not playing at the stakes you are you have to pay attention to the game type at a particular level. And this doesn't always follow that the cheaper buy in is easier to beat. If you find yourself playing on a table full of the same tight aggressive players it can be as hard to reach the money as it is to extract 10BB from the cash tables with the same table dynamic. Invariably you end up with 8 players left all on similar stacks with the blinds dictating push or fold, this will harm your variance. If the same players are constantly playing at the same level and this is happening, ditch that level.
So make plenty of notes on the players and avoid sitting down on a table where there aren't at least 3 LAG's or unknowns. At least if you aren't getting cards or any positional opportunities they can damage the other runners increasing your chipstack value.
I'd like to hear your comments on my thoughts.
Regards
Geoff (www.gthejester.blogspot.com)
Thanks Mick.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments Jester.
I've been trying to work out what sort of variance I could expect given that these are double up tourneys.
I'm not really looking at who is sitting at the tables before selecting the games I'm going to be playing because there is generally only really enough going at any one time to just about keep my 4 tables going.
I have obviously been keeping the notes and so I know pretty much which players will call in certain circumstances with any two cards and who will need a hand before they will call. That way I seem to be having a bit of success knowing when is the best time to push and which players will fold Aces given the right circumstances.
That for me is where the edge is.
The $200 ROI could well be variance but I think it is best to leave that buy in until I have some more comfort in my bankroll to take that risk.
I'm off to play the pick you GUKPT in a second so fingers crossed!